1 Nov 2016

2016 Melbourne Cup Quant Analysis Macquarie Research

It's the first Tuesday in November and the 2016 Melbourne Cup is upon us again (feels like only yesterday a female jockey riding a ridiculously priced horse won!).

Another Melbourne Cup morning and another Melbourne Cup quant-style analysis from the brains at Macquarie Research comes across our desk, circulated in an effort to both entertain us and assist us in making a sensible punt this afternoon (which is very timely, as we have been so busy this year that we are yet to look at a form guide!).

It hasn't been all rainbows and unicorns for the Macquarie Research team in trying to predict the Melbourne Cup winner, over the last few years they've have had a rough trot (pun intended). However, a major change in their modelling approach has been brought about this year (along with renaming the model the 'Macquarie Quant Halpha Model') which now:

"...aims to predict which horses are most likely to be mispriced by the market".

For the first time the team at Macquarie have analysed roughly 40,000 horses across 4,000 races to bring more data to their analysis:

"By using quant techniques to capture how over- or undervalued horses are relative to their odds, we find the best value horses and estimate each horse’s true chances of winning."

According to their new quant-style modelling, the Mac Bankers conclude that the horse most likely to win this year's Melbourne Cup is Hartnell and the most undervalued horse in the great race is Assign.

If you're having a flutter on the Melbourne Cup this afternoon, it's worth having a quick flick through the research:

2016 Melbourne Cup Quant Analysis by Macquarie

As history has shown, it won't guarantee a win, but it's an interesting read at the very least!

Good luck!


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